Israel's 2050 Electricity grid: What are our (reasonable) options?

Building a simple model of Israel's electrical grid and using generous cost estimations for PV and storage show that:

• Using only renewables to reach 90% GHG reduction, we need to use more than 2200 square km of land (11% of Israel's area) for PV panels.

• The grid Levelized Cost of Energy (LCOE) more than doubled.

Despite storage being 6x cheaper and PV being 2x cheaper, and no additional transmission and integration costs for renewables.

Takeaways:

1. PV is extremely area intensive.

2. Li-Ion Storage required, even in 2050, is still expensive (and probably not practical).

3. No way to get to zero emission with renewables (even 85% is a stretch)

4. Adding Nuclear power to the mix dramatically reduces cost and minimizes land use.

This model was for Israel in 2050, but conclusions apply to other countries, as California and Germany are finding out.

See more results and methodology here

Model optimization results for PV+ storage option: Too much solar in the summer, still not enough in the winter

Model summary: renewables cost and land requirement explodes beyond 80% GHG reduction. Adding nuclear to the mix can achieve much better outcomes.